How Data Revisions Shape the Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions
WEBJan 31, 2024 — Fed Governor Christopher Waller's reflections underscore a key challenge: the necessity of making decisions based on the data available at the moment, despite its potential for later revision.This issue becomes particularly thorny when these revisions are not minor adjustments but game-changers, significantly altering the economic landscape perceived by policymakers.
US unemployment rate under the microscope again
WEB2 days ago — Headline payroll growth was much stronger than expected at +254,000, the largest gain since March. Revisions to July and August added a combined +72,000 jobs. Household employment saw a robust increase of +430,000, causing the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.1%. The unrounded figure suggests an even more significant decline to …
OpenAI faces financial struggles amid leadership departures
WEB1 day ago — OpenAI faces financial struggles amid leadership departures. OpenAI, a leading artificial intelligence company, is projected to lose between $4 billion and $5 billion this year. In the coming six months, it plans to shift from a non-profit to a for-profit entity, yet it is expected to continue incurring substantial losses.
FOMC to Rethink Monetary Easing Amid Persistent Inflation
WEBApr 30, 2024 — The FOMC's potential shift in language regarding inflation and monetary easing bears significant implications for the markets. An acknowledgment of sustained high inflation rates could dampen hopes for imminent rate cuts, altering investment landscapes and risk assessments. If the FOMC opts to reduce the …
Soft landing for the Fed, but Americans still struggle
WEBSep 3, 2024 — In his remarks last month, given at an annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell underscored how the Fed’s sharp rate hikes succeeded much more than most economists had predicted in taming inflation without hammering the economy — a notoriously difficult feat known as a “soft landing”. “Some argued that getting ...
US unemployment rises despite positive indicators
WEB4 days ago — Unemployment and layoffs. The rising unemployment rate is a cause for concern. However, this increase is not primarily caused by mass layoffs. The employment ratio of 24- to 54-year-olds is robust compared to previous recession periods. Initial jobless claims also remain low, although they may have reached their lowest point for this cycle.
US labor market trends heighten recession risks
WEBSep 6, 2024 — Recent employment data shows worrying trends. The employment rate was 3.5% - well below expectations given the U-3 unemployment rate of 4.3%. In comparison, in 2014 we saw a JOLTS employment rate of 3.5% when the unemployment rate was around 6.5%. The JOLTS layoff rate was 1.1% - not high, but also close to 2014 levels.
Fed's Dovish Turn: Unpacking the Global Impact on Markets
WEBMar 26, 2024 — Central Banks in a Global Context. Beyond the United States, the ripple effects of the Fed's policies are felt widely. The Bank of England (BoE), for instance, is grappling with disinflationary pressures, indicating …
US Economy Shows Strong Growth in First Quarter - Financial World
WEBApr 27, 2024 — Domestic Demand and Investment Fuel Growth. The latest data reveals that real GDP growth for the first quarter was annualized at 1.6%, which, while below the consensus expectations of 2.5% and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's forecast of 2.7%, still shows strong underlying economic activity.
The Federal Reserve Weighs Inflation Data Ahead of Policy Meeting
WEBMar 15, 2024 — Financial; The Federal Reserve Weighs Inflation Data Ahead of Policy Meeting. After the latest report on the cost of living in the US, or the Consumer Price Index (CPI), came out, people in the financial world had mixed feelings.